Disruptions in service-including the potential for widespread blackouts-may result. For instance, on days when temperature exceeds 95☏, demand for electricity may exceed the capacity of energy-generating facilities and the electrical grid. Increased energy consumption may strain energy infrastructure, especially during periods of peak energy demand. Impacts from Hurricane Sandy caused power outages across a large swath of New York City. Using wind and solar to generate electricity to meet this demand may shift consumption of fossil fuels to more renewable sources of energy. The expected consequence of this situation is reduced demand for fuel oil and natural gas and increased demand for electricity. Winter heating is powered by a mixture of electricity, fuel oil, and natural gas, whereas summer cooling is powered by electricity. The mix of energy sources used in each region may also change with increased temperatures. Projections for counties with thin white outlines have the lowest confidence. Black outlines indicate projections with the greatest confidence no outline indicates a bit less confidence. The outline color indicates the level of certainty of the projections. For each county, the fill color indicates the median percentage change in projected spending on electricity as a result of rising global temperatures. electricity expenditures by 2080–2099 compared to today, assuming continued increases in carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels. As a result of higher temperatures, economists estimate increases in net energy costs for all but the coldest regions of the contiguous United States. Therefore, most regions can expect a net increase in energy consumption. The energy saved during warmer winters is not expected to offset increases in consumption during hotter summers. Conversely, hotter summers will increase demand for cooling, increasing the amount of energy consumed. In future decades, warmer winters will decrease the need for heating, reducing energy consumption. The number of days above 90☏ is projected to rise while the number of days below freezing is projected to decline. Heat waves are projected to become more intense and cold waves less intense. Extreme high temperatures are projected to increase even more than average temperatures. While Russian pipeline supply to Europe overall was steady at 167 Bcm in 2021, exports to the EU decreased by 8.2% (-12 Bcm).Annual average temperature over the contiguous United States has increased over the last century and scientists are highly confident it will continue increasing into the future. Algerian pipeline exports to Europe were the largest source of pipeline supply growth to the region (+13 Bcm) last year, followed by Azerbaijan (+6 Bcm).China surpassed Japan as the world’s largest LNG importer and accounted for close to 60% of global LNG demand growth in 2021.LNG supply from the US rose by 34 Bcm, accounting for most of the new incremental supplies and more than offsetting declines from mainly other Atlantic Basin exporters. LNG supply grew 5.6% (+26 Bcm) to 516 Bcm in 2021, its slowest rate of growth since 2015 (other than in 2020).Its share in primary energy in 2021 was unchanged from the previous year at 24%. Global natural gas demand grew 5.3% in 2021, recovering above pre-pandemic 2019 levels and crossing the 4 Tcm mark for the first time.US Henry Hub prices nearly doubled to average $3.84/mmBtu in 2021 - their highest annual level since 2014. Natural gas prices rebounded strongly across all three major gas regions in 2021, rising fourfold to record annual levels in Europe (TTF averaging $16.02/mmBtu) and tripling in the Asian LNG spot market (JKM averaging $18.60/mmBtu).As a result, refining capacity in the OECD in 2021 was at its lowest level since 1998. Refinery capacity declined for the first time in over 30 years by almost 500,000 b/d last year, driven by a sharp reduction in the OECD (1.1 million b/d).Among all countries, Libya (840,000 b/d), Iran (540,000 b/d) and Canada (300,000 b/d) saw the largest increases. Global oil production increased by 1.4 million b/d in 2021, with OPEC+ accounting for more than three-quarters of the increase.Regionally, most of the growth took place in the US (1.5 million b/d), China (1.3 million b/d) and the EU (570,000 b/d). A majority of the consumption growth came from gasoline (1.8 million b/d) and diesel/gasoil (1.3 million b/d).Oil consumption increased by 5.3 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2021 but remained 3.7 million b/d below 2019 levels.Oil prices averaged $70.91/bbl in 2021, the second highest level since 2015.
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